EdgHouseLoginFree Trial
EdgHouseLoginStart 7-Day Free Trial
EdgHouseLoginStart 7-Day Free Trial

Expected value calculator

Enter the odds and your own win probability to see what the bet is worth on average.

2.50 decimal · 40.00% implied
%
$
Expected value+EV
+$12.50
EV as % of stake+12.5%
Profit if it wins$150.00
Break-even probability40.00%
Your probability45.00%

Expected value calculator FAQ

What does +EV mean?

On average, the bet returns more than it costs at the probability you entered. Any single bet still wins or loses in full.

Where does the win probability come from?

It’s your own estimate, and the result is only as good as that number. Compare it with the break-even probability shown with the result.

What is break-even probability?

The win probability at which EV is zero. It equals the implied probability of the odds.

Why show EV as a percentage of the stake?

It lets you compare bets of different sizes on the same scale.

Every bet, already researched

EdgHouse is the research app for bettors who want to think for themselves.

Start 7-Day Free Trial
Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

No charge until day 8. Cancel anytime.

Every bet, already researched

EdgHouse is the research app for bettors who want to think for themselves.

Start 7-Day Free Trial
Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

No charge until day 8. Cancel anytime.

Every bet, already researched

EdgHouse is the research app for bettors who want to think for themselves.

Start 7-Day Free TrialDownload on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

No charge until day 8. Cancel anytime.

How it’s calculated

p is your estimated win probability. EV is the average result per bet if that probability is right.

The formula

Profit if it wins
stake × (decimal − 1)
Expected value
p × profit − (1 − p) × stake
EV %
EV ÷ stake
Break-even probability
1 ÷ decimal

Worked example

  1. 1+150 on $100, at your 45%Profit if it wins: $100 × 1.50 = $150
  2. 2Expected value0.45 × $150 − 0.55 × $100 = +$12.50
  3. 3EV %$12.50 ÷ $100 = +12.5%
  4. 4Break-even probability1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.00%